Market research firm IDC (International Data Corporation) has released a new forecast on the video game console market, rather cumbersomely titled Worldwide Video Game and Entertainment Console Hardware and Packaged Software 2012–2016 Forecast.

Some of the findings contained in the forecast include Sony’s PS3 system overtaking the number of Xbox 360 shipments worldwide, with the former shipping an estimated 77 million bundles, bettering the latter with 1 million. This despite the fact that the PlayStation 3 was launched a year later than the Xbox 360.

When it comes to Nintendo, IDC asserts that the new Wii U next-gen console will definitely find an audience, forecasting that the number of global bundle shipments of Nintendo’s latest console will surpass 50 million by year-end 2016.

“The console ecosystem is in a state of flux since these platforms need to support an ever-growing array of non-gaming features and services at the same time that game distribution and monetisation is moving in a digital direction,” said Lewis Ward, research manager of IDC’s Gaming service.

“At the same time, it doesn’t appear that alternative platforms — set-top boxes from cable companies, web-connected smart TVs, and so on — are positioned to materially disrupt the trajectory of the ‘big 3’ console OEMs in 2013 or 2014. Discs will remain the console game revenue mainstay for years to come,” Ward added.

In time digital channels will eat into physical game disc market share

IDC expects the volume of packaged game discs shipments to decline at an average of around 3% per year until 2016. This is due to anticipated spending trends in the console market shifting towards digital channels as opposed to hard copies.

“2011 and 2012 were tough for many console game disc developers and publishers,” stated Ward. “With the advent of eighth-generation consoles, starting with the Wii U, historical norms strongly imply that game disc revenue will stop bleeding in 2013 and rise substantively in 2014.”

The forecast details the demand for Microsoft (Xbox 360), Nintendo (Wii and Wii U), and Sony (PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 2) game console hardware as well as associated physical game software in four global regions up until 2016. These four regions are North America, Western Europe, Japan, and a combined Rest of World (ROW).

In related news, IDC also recently announced that the worldwide smart connected device market, which consists of PC, smartphone and tablet shipments, grew by 27.1% year-on-year during Q3 2012, culminating in a record 303.6 million shipments that is valued at a staggering  $140.4 billion.